Property values continued to ease in July, with the latest Cotality NZ Home Value Index showing the national median value slipped again as buyers remained cautious and listing levels stayed elevated.
Cotality reported the national median value was $804,303 in July, down 0.3% from June. Values were also 1.0% lower over the past three months and 0.7% lower than a year ago.
LJ Hooker Head of Research Mathew Tiller said the latest result shows the market continues to move at a measured pace, with buyers still taking their time before making big financial decisions.
“July’s result continues the pattern we’ve seen for much of the year. Values are not falling sharply, but buyers are still cautious and taking longer to make decisions,” Tiller said.
“The market has come a long way from the peak. Conditions are steadier than they were through the correction, but we’re yet to see a broad-based recovery.”
Buyers continue to have more choice
Cotality said elevated listing levels continued to give buyers more negotiating power, with sales volumes edging lower so far this year but remaining around relatively normal levels.
Tiller said the amount of stock available was one of the key reasons price growth remained constrained.
“When buyers have more choice, they do not feel the same pressure to move quickly. That is limiting price growth because purchasers can compare more options and negotiate with confidence,” Tiller said.
“Mortgage rates have not shifted dramatically in recent weeks, but they remain an important factor for buyers because borrowing costs still shape affordability.”
Mixed results across the main centres
July produced mixed results across the main centres:
- Dunedin: up 0.2%
- Christchurch: up 0.1%
- Hamilton: down 0.2%
- Wellington: down 0.5%
- Auckland: down 0.6%
- Tauranga: down 0.7%
Tiller said the figures highlighted how local economic conditions, affordability and supply levels were shaping different outcomes across the country.
“National numbers are useful for understanding the overall market trend, but property markets are still highly local,” Tiller said.
“Some areas are holding up better because affordability is better or local conditions are stronger. In other parts of the country, particularly where listings are high, buyers still have plenty of choice.”
Tiller said the variation between regions was clear across the LJ Hooker network.
“What our offices are seeing is that every market is different,” Tiller said.
“In some locations, well-presented homes are still attracting interest when they are priced correctly. In others, buyers are taking longer and sellers need to be realistic. Local knowledge really matters in this type of market.”
Auckland remains subdued
Cotality reported broad-based falls across Auckland in July, with values down across all major sub-markets. Rodney and Papakura recorded smaller falls of 0.2%, while Auckland City, Manukau, North Shore and Waitakere each declined 0.6%.
Tiller said Auckland continued to be affected by softer economic confidence and a large pipeline of housing supply.
“Auckland remains one of the softer markets. Higher values, more stock for sale and a sizeable supply pipeline, particularly for townhouses, are all weighing on pricing,” Tiller said.
“That is challenging for some vendors, but it does create opportunities for buyers who have been waiting for more choice or better value.”
Confidence remains a factor in Wellington
Wellington values also softened in July, with Cotality reporting falls across most of the wider region. Porirua was flat, while Kāpiti Coast, Lower Hutt, Upper Hutt and Wellington City all recorded declines.
Wellington City values were down 3.1% over the past three months, although the annual fall was more modest at 1.8%.
Tiller said improved affordability had not yet led to a stronger market because confidence remained subdued.
“Wellington shows that better affordability does not automatically mean stronger buyer activity,” Tiller said.
“Households are still thinking about job security, economic conditions and interest rates before making major decisions. That is why buyers are taking their time.”
Regional markets show resilience in places
Outside the main centres, Cotality reported more varied results. Invercargill rose 1.2% in July, while New Plymouth increased 0.2%, Rotorua edged up 0.1%, and Whangārei was flat.
By contrast, Gisborne fell 0.9%, while Queenstown, Nelson, Hastings and Whanganui also recorded declines.
Tiller said the regional results showed the influence of local industries and economic drivers.
“Some regional markets are being supported by stronger local conditions, including farming and tourism,” Tiller said.
“Invercargill has been one of the stronger performers over the past year, helped by the local economy. At the same time, other regions are still softer, so it is not one story across the country.”
Looking ahead
Cotality said the housing market has now experienced around three years of broad stagnation following the sharp falls of 2022 and the first half of 2023.
Tiller said the market was likely to continue moving at a measured pace in the near term, with interest rates, inflation and economic confidence continuing to shape activity.
“Over the long term, factors such as population growth, wages and household formation should support property values, but the timing of any sustained improvement remains uncertain,” Tiller said.
“For now, buyers have more choice, expectations around capital growth are more measured, and any improvement is likely to be gradual.”
Tiller said the current market still offered opportunities for both buyers and sellers, provided expectations were aligned with conditions.
“This is not a market where people can rely on momentum alone. Buyers need good advice so they can recognise value, and sellers need a clear plan so they can stand out,” Tiller said.
“People are still buying and selling because life goes on. Upsizing, downsizing, relocating and first-home buying are still happening. The market is more measured, but activity is there when expectations meet the market.”
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