New Zealand’s property market remained subdued in October, with values recording a seventh consecutive monthly decline as buyers continued to benefit from a wide choice of homes for sale.
Cotality’s latest Home Value Index showed national property values fell 0.4% during October and were 2.3% lower than a year earlier. The national median property value slipped to $790,987, its lowest level since December 2020.
Meanwhile, research from realestate.co.nz and the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) found the national average asking price was just 0.6% above the average selling price over the 12 months to September 2026.
LJ Hooker Head of Research Mathew Tiller said the figures pointed to a market where buyers had time to make decisions and sellers needed to be realistic about price.
“Values continue to ease gradually rather than move sharply, but seven consecutive monthly declines show that buyer demand has not been strong enough to absorb the available supply,” Tiller said.
“At the same time, the relatively small gap between average asking and selling prices suggests sellers, on the whole, are setting prices that reflect current conditions.
“That does not mean every home will sell close to its asking price. The national figures cover different properties and markets, so buyers and sellers still need to look closely at comparable sales in their area.”
Buyers retain the upper hand
Cotality reported that agreed sales volumes had gradually declined throughout 2026, while the spring increase in new listings had kept the stock of unsold homes elevated. The combination continues to give buyers choice and negotiating power.
Tiller said a buyer-friendly market could create opportunities, but purchasers still needed to be comfortable with their finances.
“Having more homes to choose from allows buyers to compare properties and carry out their due diligence without the same pressure they might feel in a tightly supplied market,” Tiller said.
“First-home buyers in particular may find they have more time to explore their options. But job security, borrowing capacity and the cost of repayments remain important considerations before making a commitment.”
LJ Hooker Head of Network NZ Allaine Burkett said sellers could still achieve a strong result when their campaign responded to current conditions.
“Buyers have options, so a property needs to give them a clear reason to act,” Burkett said.
“Good presentation, effective marketing and a price that reflects comparable sales can help a home stand out from the competition.
“An experienced local agent can also help sellers understand what buyers are looking for and adjust their campaign based on the feedback they receive.”
Mixed results across the main centres
October produced varied results across New Zealand’s main centres, according to Cotality:
- Hamilton: unchanged
- Tauranga: unchanged
- Christchurch: unchanged
- Dunedin: down 0.1%
- Auckland: down 0.7%
- Wellington: down 0.9%
Tiller said the differences showed why national figures were only a starting point for understanding market conditions.
“Hamilton, Tauranga and Christchurch held steady in October, while Auckland and Wellington recorded further declines,” Tiller said.
“Each market has its own balance of supply and demand, as well as different economic and affordability pressures. Buyers and sellers should focus on the evidence in their own suburb, rather than assume the national trend applies equally everywhere.”
The regional picture was also mixed. Queenstown values rose 0.8% in October, while Invercargill declined 1.0%. Despite that monthly fall, Invercargill values remained 4.3% higher than a year earlier, and Queenstown was up 2.9%.
“Queenstown and Invercargill show that some regional markets have been more resilient over the past year, even though their monthly results can move in different directions,” Tiller said.
Auckland values continue to soften
Property values declined across all Auckland sub-markets in October. Rodney recorded the smallest fall, at 0.1%, followed by Franklin at 0.4% and Papakura at 0.6%.
Manukau, Waitākere, Auckland City and the North Shore each recorded falls of between 0.7% and 0.8%. Cotality noted that continued growth in housing supply, including townhouses, has contributed to the conditions facing the market.
Although values fell across every Auckland sub-market, the size of the declines varied, showing the downturn was not uniform across the city.
“Auckland buyers can consider a range of locations and property types, and that choice is influencing how they assess value,” Tiller said.
“For sellers, the right strategy will depend on the homes competing for the same buyers, recent sales and the features that make their property distinctive.”
Wellington remains subdued
Values declined across the wider Wellington region in October. Kāpiti Coast recorded the smallest fall at 0.2%, followed by Porirua at 0.6% and Wellington City at 0.8%. Values fell by more than 1% in both Upper Hutt and Lower Hutt.
Tiller said confidence in the local economy remained an important factor for the region.
“Wellington has faced a challenging period, and decisions about employment and household finances continue to influence people’s willingness to buy or sell,” Tiller said.
“Conditions also differ across the region. A seller in Kāpiti Coast may be facing a different market from someone in Lower Hutt or Wellington City, so local advice and recent comparable sales are essential.”
Asking prices provide a useful guide
The realestate.co.nz and REINZ research found that average selling prices were below average asking prices in 12 of New Zealand’s 19 regions over the 12 months to September. In the remaining seven regions, average selling prices were higher.
The research also found national average asking and selling prices had remained around the $850,000 mark for almost four years.
“The striking feature is how little the national average has shifted over almost four years,” Tiller said.
“That points to a prolonged period of adjustment rather than a market moving decisively into its next growth phase. However, a steady national average can mask changes in the mix of homes being listed and sold.”
Burkett said people selling and buying in the same market should consider both sides of their move.
“A lower sale price can feel disappointing, but the home you want to buy may also have become more affordable,” Burkett said.
“The key is the gap between the two properties and the total cost of moving, rather than the sale price alone.”
Looking ahead
Cotality expects sales and prices to remain relatively subdued, with the election, the possibility of higher mortgage rates and uncertainty about the strength of the economic recovery among the factors influencing the outlook.
Tiller said a sustained improvement in activity would depend on greater confidence among households.
“The market is likely to remain measured while buyers weigh up borrowing costs, employment security and the wider economic outlook,” Tiller said.
“Election-related uncertainty may also cause some people to pause, although property decisions are ultimately shaped by individual circumstances as well as the broader market.
“For buyers who are financially prepared, the current level of choice can create opportunities. For sellers, the priority is to understand the market they are entering and plan accordingly.”
Burkett said life changes would continue to bring buyers and sellers into the market.
“People still need to move for family, work and lifestyle reasons, regardless of the wider cycle,” Burkett said.
“A useful starting point is to review your finances, local market conditions and recent comparable sales. These factors can help inform a decision that fits your circumstances.”
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