The New Zealand property market has entered 2026 much as it left 2025: steady, cautious and highly regional in its performance. The latest data from Cotality and realestate.co.nz shows modest value movements, elevated stock levels and buyers taking a considered approach despite improving borrowing conditions.
According to LJ Hooker Head of Research Mathew Tiller, January’s results reinforce the theme that has dominated the market for sometime.
“The early signals for 2026 point to continuity rather than change. We’re seeing stability rather than momentum, with buyers and sellers both measured in their expectations,” Tiller said.
Property values broadly flat nationally
Cotality’s January Home Value Index shows national property values dipped just 0.1% over the month, extending the broadly flat finish seen through much of 2025. The national median value now sits at $802,617, down 1.0%year-on-year and still 17.5% below the market peak in early 2022.
Across dwelling types, the trend remains uneven. Standalone houses recorded a 0.7% annual decline, townhouses fell 1.7%, and apartments dropped 4.1%, although apartments account for just a small share of national housing stock.
“The market is still working through the legacy of the previous cycle. While interest rates are lower and affordability has improved, that hasn’t yet translated into upward pressure on values,” Tiller said.
Main centres remain patchy
Performance across the main centres was mixed in January. Auckland values slipped 0.3%, while Wellington declined 0.1%. Hamilton and Christchurch were flat, while Tauranga and Dunedin recorded modest monthly increases.
Auckland continues to underperform relative to other regions, with declines recorded across most parts of the city. Wellington also remains soft, particularly across the wider Hutt Valley and Porirua.
“Auckland and Wellington are still the key weak spots in the national market. High listing volumes, cautious buyers, and ongoing economic uncertainty are all contributing to subdued outcomes in both centres,” Tiller said.
At the same time, first-home buyers continue to play a significant role, particularly in Wellington, where they accounted for more than a third of purchases last year.
“Flat to falling prices are keeping first-home buyers active, especially where lending conditions remain supportive. That segment of the market is helping to underpin activity, even as investors and up graders remain selective.”
Regional markets show greater variation
Outside the main centres, results were more encouraging. While Hawke’s Bay and Whanganui recorded slight declines, many regional markets either held steady or increased over the month. Invercargill, Palmerston North and Queenstown all saw modest growth, and several parts of Southland and Canterbury remain above their previous value peaks.
“Affordability is playing a big role in regional performance. In areas where prices are lower relative to incomes, buyers have more flexibility and that’s supporting values,” Tiller said.
He also noted that stronger conditions in parts of the farming sector are contributing to regional confidence.
“Rural and provincial markets are benefiting from more positive conditions in agriculture, which is helping to stabilise local housing markets.”
Asking prices ease, but buyer interest is lifting
Data from realestate.co.nz shows the national average asking price fell 1.5% year-on-year to $856,730 in January. However, several regions recorded new January highs, including the West Coast, Gisborne, Canterbury, and Central Otago/Lakes District.
At the other end of the spectrum, Marlborough recorded the largest annual fall in asking prices, dropping back into the $600,000 range for the first time in several years.
“What we’re seeing is a recalibration rather than a retreat. Vendors are adjusting to market realities, but confidence remains in regions where lifestyle appeal and long-term value align,” Tiller said.
Buyer engagement is also improving, with visits to realestate.co.nz up more than 12% compared to the same time last year.
“Buyers are active and well-prepared, but they’re taking their time. Pre-approvals are in place, due diligence is thorough, and decisions are considered.”
Listings and stock remain elevated
New listings nationally rose just 1.3% year-on-year in January, although some regions recorded strong growth, led by Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Northland and the West Coast. Other areas, particularly parts of the South Island and traditional holiday markets, saw fewer new listings.
Total stock levels rose to 33,149 properties, the highest January figure since 2014.
“There’s no shortage of choice for buyers. Elevated stock levels are keeping competition in check and reinforcing the importance of realistic pricing for sellers,” said Tiller.
Outlook for 2026: steady, not spectacular
Looking ahead, Tiller expects sales activity to continue improving gradually through 2026, supported by lower interest rates, a slowly strengthening economy and improving affordability. However, he cautioned against expectations of rapid price growth.
“This is shaping up to be another relatively measured year for the housing market. Supply remains ample, lending rules still act as a guardrail and buyers are disciplined,” he said.
First-home buyers are expected to remain a strong presence, while investors are returning cautiously, keeping a close watch on political and regulatory developments.
“The market has found its footing, but it’s not sprinting. For both buyers and sellers, success in 2026 will come down to understanding local conditions and setting expectations accordingly.”
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