New Zealand’s property market remained subdued in September, with values recording a sixth consecutive monthly decline as elevated stock levels continued to give buyers time and negotiating power.
Cotality’s latest Home Value Index showed national property values fell 0.3% during September and were 1.3% lower than a year earlier. The national median property value slipped to $797,078, below the previous cycle low recorded in June 2023.
At the same time, realestate.co.nz recorded a national average asking price of $855,245, down just 0.2% year-on-year. The number of homes available for sale rose 10.7% to 34,001, while 9,466 new listings came to market during the month.
LJ Hooker Head of Research Mathew Tiller said the figures pointed to a market that remained stable overall, despite the gradual decline in property values.
“Six consecutive monthly falls might sound significant, but the size of those movements matters,” Tiller said.
“Values declined by 0.3% in September and are 1.3% lower than a year ago. That indicates a market gradually adjusting to economic uncertainty and higher borrowing costs rather than experiencing a sharp correction.
“Meanwhile, the national average asking price has barely changed over the past year. Together, the two measures show that buyers remain cautious while many vendors are holding relatively firm on their price expectations.”
Buyers retain the upper hand
The more than 10% increase in national housing stock for sale was driven by several regions that recorded double-digit stock growth. Gisborne led the rise, with the number of properties available up 62.7%. Taranaki stock increased 19.9% and Marlborough rose 18.3%.
Tiller said the available supply of property continued to have a greater influence on market conditions than the modest increase in new listings.
“Buyers have more than 34,000 properties to choose from, so there is little pressure to make an immediate decision,” Tiller said.
“They can compare homes, complete their due diligence and negotiate carefully. That is helping to keep price growth constrained, even in markets where buyer enquiry remains healthy.
“Improved affordability is creating opportunities, particularly for first-home buyers, but confidence around employment, mortgage costs and the wider economy continues to influence how quickly people are prepared to act.”
LJ Hooker Head of Network NZ Allaine Burkett said buyers were active but remained selective and value-conscious.
“People are attending open homes and making offers when they see the right property, but they are taking a considered approach,” Burkett said.
“They want to understand the recent comparable sales, the condition of the home and whether the asking price reflects the local market.
“For vendors, that makes the first few weeks of a campaign especially important. Presentation, pricing and marketing all need to work together to capture attention when buyers have plenty of alternatives.”
Mixed results across the main centres
September produced mixed results across New Zealand’s main centres:
- Hamilton: up 0.4%
- Christchurch: up 0.2%
- Dunedin: down 0.1%
- Tauranga: down 0.3%
- Auckland: down 0.5%
- Wellington: down 0.7%
Tiller said the variation reinforced the importance of examining local conditions rather than relying only on the national headline.
“Hamilton and Christchurch recorded modest growth, while Auckland and Wellington continued to face more challenging conditions,” Tiller said.
“Local employment, affordability, housing supply and population movements are producing different outcomes across the country. In a subdued national market, those regional fundamentals become even more important.”
Outside the main centres, Queenstown recorded a 0.6% increase in values and Rotorua edged 0.1% higher. However, Napier and Whanganui each declined 1.0% during the month.
“Some provincial markets, particularly those supported by tourism, farming or relative affordability, continue to show greater resilience,” Tiller said.
“But September’s results were still patchy. There is no single property-market experience across New Zealand, which is why buyers and sellers need to understand the conditions affecting their particular suburb and property type.”
Auckland median value holds above $1 million
Auckland’s median property value remained above $1 million in September, sitting at $1,021,936.
More than 3,500 new Auckland listings came to market during the month, an increase of 7.7% year-on-year. Total stock rose 13.8% to 13,958 homes.
Property values also declined across all Auckland sub-markets in September. Papakura and Rodney recorded relatively modest falls of 0.1%, while Manukau, Auckland City and the North Shore declined by 0.5% or more.
Tiller said the figures highlighted the level of choice available to Auckland purchasers.
“Even with the median still above $1 million, the lift in available supply is giving buyers more options across property types and price points, and more leverage in negotiations,” Tiller said.
“With almost 14,000 homes available, buyers have considerable choice across property types and price points. Values in several parts of Auckland are also well below their previous peaks, creating opportunities for first-home buyers and those looking to trade up.
“However, choice does not automatically translate into activity. Buyers still need confidence in their employment and finances before committing to a purchase.”
Burkett said sellers could still achieve a strong result by responding to current buyer behaviour.
“Buyers are searching for quality and value, so vendors need to make it easy for them to see why their home deserves attention,” Burkett said.
“That means presenting the property well, addressing maintenance where possible and setting a pricing strategy based on today’s market rather than an earlier peak.
“The best campaigns are creating competition by reaching the right audience and giving buyers confidence to act.”
Wellington remains subdued
Property values declined across every part of the wider Wellington region during September. Kāpiti Coast recorded the smallest fall at 0.3%, while Porirua, Upper Hutt and Wellington City each fell 0.6%. Lower Hutt recorded a sharper 0.9% decline.
Tiller said economic uncertainty continued to affect confidence across the region.
“Wellington’s property market remains closely connected to confidence in the labour market and the outlook for public-sector spending,” Tiller said.
“Affordability has improved considerably from the peak, but households are still cautious about taking on additional debt. That is likely to keep activity measured until people feel more secure about the economic outlook.”
Spring lifts new listings
With new listings up 0.8% year-on-year nationally, many regions saw stock levels fall. New listings declined in 12 of the 19 regions monitored by realestate.co.nz. Southland recorded the largest fall at 21.2%, followed by the West Coast at 14.3%, Hawke’s Bay at 12.2% and Manawatū-Whanganui at 10.7%.
Burkett said the national increase showed vendors were still prepared to enter the market during spring despite the approaching election.
“People continue to sell because their circumstances change, regardless of the political cycle,” Burkett said.
“Families need more space, owners downsize, jobs take people to new locations and investors review their portfolios. Those life events continue to generate listings and transactions.
“Spring brings more properties to market and generally attracts more buyers, but vendors should not assume seasonal activity will do all the work. In a high-choice environment, each campaign needs a clear plan to stand out from competing listings.”
Looking ahead
Cotality expects improved affordability to help limit the extent of further property-value falls. However, elevated mortgage rates, economic uncertainty and the high number of homes available for sale are likely to constrain price growth.
Tiller said a sustained recovery would require stronger household confidence and greater certainty around employment.
“Affordability has improved and the risk of another major downturn has reduced, but the conditions for a rapid rebound are not yet in place,” Tiller said.
“First-home buyers remain well positioned because they have more choice and less competition. Upgrading owner-occupiers and leveraged investors are generally more cautious because borrowing costs and economic uncertainty have a greater influence on their decisions.
“The market is likely to remain gradual and uneven until there is a clearer improvement in the labour market, household finances and confidence.”
Burkett said the current environment rewarded realistic expectations and good preparation.
“There are genuine opportunities for buyers and sellers, but successful transactions depend on both sides responding to the market in front of them,” Burkett said.
“Buyers should have their finances organised so they can act when the right property becomes available. Sellers should focus on what they can control: presentation, pricing, marketing and choosing an experienced local agent who understands how buyers are behaving.”
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