Property values across New Zealand were unchanged in May, with the latest Cotality NZ Home Value Index (HVI) showing the national median value held steady month-on-month as both buyers and sellers continued to take a measured approach to the market.
Cotality reported the national median value in May was $808,187, unchanged from April and down 0.6% year-on-year, leaving values 17.0% below the market peak reached in early 2022.
LJ Hooker Head of Research Mathew Tiller said the latest figures point to a market that has largely stabilised after several years of adjustment, although conditions remain subdued compared to previous cycles.
"The market has found a degree of stability, but we're not yet seeing the conditions for strong, broad-based price growth," Tiller said.
"Buyers remain cautious and are taking the time to compare properties, negotiate and undertake their due diligence. At the same time, many sellers are not under significant pressure to sell, which is helping keep price movements relatively modest."
"That combination is creating a market that feels balanced, with neither buyers nor sellers holding a significant advantage nationally."
A market influenced by supply and affordability
Tiller said several competing factors continue to shape market conditions across New Zealand.
"Lower borrowing costs compared to a year ago are helping support buyer activity, and affordability has improved from the market peak as house prices have adjusted and mortgage rates have eased," he said.
"However, stock levels remain elevated across many parts of the country, giving buyers plenty of choice and reducing the urgency that typically drives stronger price growth."
While economic conditions remain mixed, Tiller said the housing market is proving more resilient than many expected.
"The economy is still facing challenges, and households remain conscious of living costs and borrowing expenses. Despite this, we're seeing demand continue to gradually improve, particularly among owner-occupiers and first-home buyers."
"The market isn't booming, but it is becoming more stable."
Regional markets continue to outperform
Across the major centres, results remained mixed during May, with several regional markets continuing to outperform the larger metropolitan areas.
Cotality reported Christchurch rose 0.4% over the month, while Dunedin and Tauranga both increased 0.2%. Hamilton recorded a modest 0.1% rise.
In contrast, Auckland declined 0.2% and Wellington fell 0.3%.
Tiller said affordability remains one of the key factors supporting regional markets.
"Many regional centres continue to offer more accessible price points than Auckland and Wellington, which is helping attract owner-occupiers, first-home buyers and investors looking for value."
"We're also seeing some regional economies perform reasonably well, which is helping underpin housing demand in those locations."
While growth remains modest, he said the performance of several regional markets demonstrates that buyer demand remains present where affordability and local economic conditions align.
Auckland remains a buyer's market
Auckland values edged lower again in May, with Cotality reporting modest declines across much of the city's housing market.
Tiller said Auckland continues to be influenced by elevated stock levels and ongoing affordability challenges.
"Auckland remains a buyer's market in many areas," he said.
"There is still a significant amount of choice available to purchasers, which means buyers can afford to be selective and negotiate on price."
"Properties that are well-presented and priced appropriately are continuing to sell, but vendors need to recognise that buyers have alternatives."
He said while lower interest rates have improved borrowing capacity for many households, supply remains a key factor limiting stronger price growth.
"When stock levels are elevated, it becomes difficult for prices to accelerate because buyers simply have more options."
Wellington recovery remains gradual
Wellington also remained one of the softer markets in May, with values continuing to ease across parts of the region.
Tiller said affordability has improved significantly compared to the market peak, but confidence remains an important consideration for many households.
"Wellington presents opportunities for buyers who are financially secure, particularly first-home buyers who may have previously been priced out of the market."
"However, confidence remains somewhat fragile. Employment concerns and broader economic uncertainty are still influencing purchasing decisions for many households."
He said any recovery in Wellington is likely to be gradual rather than rapid.
"Affordability has improved, but confidence takes time to rebuild after a prolonged market downturn."
Listings continue to favour buyers
Data from realestate.co.nz suggests buyers continued to have plenty of choice during May.
The website recorded 9,521 new listings nationally, up 0.3% year-on-year, while total stock levels increased 5.0% to 36,130 properties.
Tiller said supply remains one of the most important influences on the market.
"Stock levels are higher than we've become accustomed to over recent years, and that continues to give buyers greater choice and negotiating power."
"When buyers have options, there is less urgency in the market, which naturally helps keep price growth contained."
He said the increased supply is helping create a more balanced market environment.
"From a buyer's perspective, conditions remain favourable because there is choice and the ability to negotiate."
"For sellers, it reinforces the importance of realistic pricing and presenting properties well."
At the same time, some markets continue to stand out.
realestate.co.nz reported the Central Otago/Lakes District reached a record average asking price of $1,671,980 in May, highlighting the ongoing appeal of lifestyle-focused locations.
Interest rates remain a key driver
Looking ahead, Tiller said interest rates, confidence and supply levels will remain the major factors influencing market conditions.
"Lower borrowing costs have provided support to housing demand and improved affordability compared to the market peak."
"However, buyers remain sensitive to borrowing costs and economic conditions, particularly as households continue to manage higher living expenses than they experienced several years ago."
He said the direction of the economy will play an important role in determining how quickly confidence returns.
"Housing markets tend to perform best when households feel secure about their employment, incomes and financial position. Confidence remains an important piece of the puzzle."
Recovery likely to remain gradual
Tiller said the most likely scenario remains a gradual and uneven recovery through the remainder of 2026.
"We're no longer seeing the broad-based declines that characterised much of the past few years, but we're also not seeing the conditions for a rapid upswing in prices."
"The housing market is continuing to stabilise, supported by improved affordability and lower borrowing costs, but elevated stock levels are likely to keep a lid on price growth in the near term."
For buyers, he said current conditions continue to provide opportunities.
"There is still plenty of choice in the market and room to negotiate, particularly in locations where supply remains elevated."
For sellers, success continues to depend on realistic expectations.
"Buyers are active, but they're selective. Pricing a property appropriately and presenting it well remains critical in the current market."
"Overall, the market is stable, but caution remains a defining feature of buyer behaviour."
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