New Zealand’s property market closed out 2025 with a modest softening in values, continued caution from buyers and elevated stock levels in several regions as activity slowed over the summer period.
According to Cotality NZ’s Home Value Index (HVI), national dwelling values fell 0.2% in December, following a similarly small decline in November. Over the full year, values ended 2025 around 1% lower nationally, reinforcing the view that the market has remained largely in a holding pattern rather than entering a strong recovery phase.
The national median dwelling value now sits at approximately $808,000, still more than 17% below the market peak in late 2021, with only modest gains recorded since mid-2023.
LJ Hooker Head of Research Mathew Tiller said December’s results reflect a market that remains finely balanced as 2026 approaches.
“December reinforced what we’ve seen for much of the past year, prices are broadly stable but lacking momentum,” Tiller said.
“Lower interest rates have improved affordability at the margins, but that hasn’t yet translated into a strong lift in buyer urgency, particularly in the larger centres.”
Buyer caution persists despite improved affordability
While borrowing costs are now lower than they were a year ago, buyer behaviour remains measured, with many households taking a wait-and-see approach.
“Buyers are more comfortable than they were 12 months ago, but they’re still selective,” Tiller said.
“There’s less fear of missing out, more choice available and more willingness to negotiate. That combination naturally slows price growth.”
He said this environment continues to favour buyers who are well prepared and able to move decisively when the right opportunity arises.
“For buyers who have finance sorted and are clear on what they want, conditions remain relatively favourable compared with the last few years.”
Mixed results across the main centres
Cotality’s December data showed a varied picture across New Zealand’s main urban markets:
- Auckland recorded another modest decline, extending a run of small monthly falls
- Wellington values also edged lower, with softness across several sub-markets
- Hamilton slipped slightly after gains earlier in the spring
- Christchurch was more resilient, holding close to flat
- Tauranga and Dunedin recorded small monthly increases
Tiller said the divergence between regions remains a key theme.
“Auckland continues to weigh on the national figures, largely due to higher stock levels and more subdued demand,” he said.
“In contrast, some South Island and provincial centres are holding up better, supported by tighter supply and steadier buyer demand.”
Stock levels remain elevated in several regions
While new listing activity typically slows over December, overall stock levels remain high in many parts of the country, reflecting the gap that has opened up between listings and sales over the past year.
“In a number of regions, listings are still accumulating faster than they’re being absorbed,” Tiller said.
“That doesn’t point to distress, but it does reinforce why price growth has been hard to sustain.”
He said vendors entering the market in early 2026 will need to be realistic on pricing, particularly in areas where buyers have plenty of choice.
“In well-supplied markets, buyers have leverage. Homes that are priced well and well-presented will still sell, but unrealistic expectations are likely to be challenged.”
Market positioning ahead of 2026
Despite the soft finish to 2025, Tiller said there are signs the foundations are being laid for improved activity next year.
“We’re likely to see turnover lift before prices do,” he said.
“As borrowing conditions continue to ease and confidence gradually improves, sales volumes should start to pick up, which will help work through some of the existing stock.”
However, he cautioned against expecting a sharp rebound.
“The next phase of the cycle looks more like steady repair than rapid growth. With debt-to-income restrictions and stock still elevated in some regions, any lift in values through 2026 is likely to be measured.”
Opportunity remains for well-prepared buyers
As the market heads into the new year, Tiller said conditions remain constructive for buyers with a long-term outlook.
“There is more choice, less pressure and in many cases greater scope to negotiate than we’ve seen for several years,” he said.
“For those who are financially ready and focused on the fundamentals, the current environment continues to offer opportunities that may not be as readily available once confidence and competition return.”
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