Property values continued to drift lower in August, while a high number of homes for sale gave buyers more choice and increased competition among vendors.
Cotality’s latest NZ Home Value Index showed national property values fell 0.4% during August, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline. The national median property value was $797,944, down 1.0% from $805,799 a year earlier.
At the same time, realestate.co.nz recorded a national average asking price of $849,362. That was only 3.2% below August 2023, despite the number of homes available for sale increasing by almost 45% over the same three-year period.
LJ Hooker Head of Research Mathew Tiller said the figures pointed to a market characterised by caution and stability rather than a sharp correction.
“August extended the gradual softening we have seen through the middle of the year, but the annual movement remains relatively modest,” Tiller said.
“Values have now declined for five consecutive months, yet they are only 1.0% lower than a year ago. That tells us the market is drifting rather than experiencing the type of rapid adjustment seen earlier in the decade.”
Buyers have more homes to choose from
According to realestate.co.nz, 32,908 homes were available for sale nationally in August, up 9.7% year-on-year.
More than 8,000 new listings came to market during the month. While that was 5.1% lower than August last year, it was 11.8% higher than three years ago.
Tiller said the stock available for sale remained an important influence on prices.
“With more than 32,000 homes on the market, buyers can compare properties, locations and price points without feeling the same urgency we see when stock is tight,” Tiller said.
“That choice is keeping price growth constrained. It is also helping to explain why asking prices have remained broadly stable over three years, even as the number of available properties has increased substantially.”
LJ Hooker Head of Network NZ Allaine Burkett said greater choice was changing the way buyers and sellers approached transactions.
“Buyers are doing their homework and taking the time to make sure a property meets their needs and represents fair value,” Burkett said.
“For vendors, that makes preparation and positioning especially important. Buyers are active, but a home needs to be presented well, marketed effectively and priced in line with current local conditions to earn their attention.”
Mixed results across the main centres
August produced mixed results across the main centres:
- Christchurch: up 0.1%
- Hamilton: down 0.1%
- Dunedin: down 0.2%
- Tauranga: down 0.4%
- Auckland: down 0.5%
- Wellington: down 0.6%
Tiller said the figures reinforced the importance of looking beyond the national result.
“Christchurch was the only main centre to record growth in August, while the other major markets softened to varying degrees,” Tiller said.
“The differences reflect local affordability, employment, confidence and supply. In a subdued national market, those local fundamentals have an even greater influence on outcomes.”
Regional asking-price data also varied significantly. Southland was the only region to record double-digit annual growth, rising 11.2% to an average asking price of $611,475. Gisborne and Wairarapa recorded annual falls of 27.9% and 10.8% respectively, while Otago’s average asking price dipped below $600,000 for the first time since October last year, to $587,898.
Tiller said the contrast showed there was no single experience of the New Zealand property market.
“Some regional markets continue to receive support from tourism, farming and relative affordability, while others are contending with weaker confidence or a larger supply of homes,” Tiller said.
“That is why buyers and sellers need to understand the data for their own suburb and property type, rather than relying on a national headline alone.”
Auckland remains buyer-friendly
Cotality reported property-value declines across most Auckland sub-markets in August, with Franklin holding steady. Papakura edged down 0.1%, Waitākere fell 0.2%, Manukau declined 0.4%, Auckland City was down 0.5%, and Rodney and the North Shore each fell 0.6%.
Realestate.co.nz also recorded an 11.5% annual increase in Auckland’s stock for sale.
Tiller said the combination of improved affordability, high listing levels and continued new housing supply was keeping conditions in buyers’ favour.
“Auckland buyers have considerable choice and that is allowing them to negotiate carefully and focus on value,” Tiller said.
“Values across Auckland’s sub-markets remain at least 20% below their previous peaks. That creates opportunities, particularly for first-home buyers, although economic confidence and borrowing costs are still influencing decisions.”
Burkett said motivated sellers could still achieve a successful result by responding to the market in front of them.
“The properties transacting are generally the ones where the seller’s expectations, the pricing strategy and the marketing campaign are aligned,” Burkett said.
“In a market with plenty of competing listings, the first few weeks are critical. A clear strategy from the outset can help create urgency around the property, even when buyers have other options.”
Wellington confidence remains subdued
Property values declined across every part of the wider Wellington region in August. Upper Hutt recorded the smallest monthly fall at 0.4%, Wellington City was down 0.5%, and Porirua fell 1.0%.
Over the past year, Kāpiti Coast declined 0.6%, while Porirua fell by more than 3% and Lower Hutt by 4.0%. However, first-home buyers remained a significant presence, accounting for around 35% to 40% of activity across the wider region, according to Cotality.
Tiller said Wellington showed how improved affordability could coexist with cautious sentiment.
“Values have adjusted significantly from their peaks, but confidence around employment and the broader economy remains a major consideration,” Tiller said.
“First-home buyers are recognising that affordability has improved, although the wider market is likely to remain measured until households feel more secure about the economic outlook.”
Spring brings opportunity and competition
New listings fell year-on-year in 15 of the 19 regions tracked by realestate.co.nz. Northland, the West Coast, Canterbury and Central Otago/Lakes District were the only regions to record an annual increase.
Burkett said spring would bring fresh opportunities for buyers and sellers, but vendors should expect to compete for attention.
“Spring traditionally encourages more homeowners to come to market, which gives buyers even more reason to look closely at every option,” Burkett said.
“For sellers, success starts with understanding who the likely buyer is, presenting the home to appeal to that audience and choosing a campaign that creates the best opportunity for competition.”
Burkett said transactions were still being driven by people’s changing circumstances, even in a cautious market.
“People continue to move because their lives change. Families need more space, owners downsize, jobs lead people to new locations and first-home buyers take their first step onto the property ladder,” Burkett said.
“There is activity in the market, but buyers and sellers need good local advice and realistic expectations to bring a transaction together.”
Looking ahead
Cotality data shows national property values remained around 18% below their peak, while several affordability measures had returned to around their long-term averages. However, higher mortgage rates, a subdued economy and uncertainty ahead of the general election were expected to keep the market in a holding pattern.
Tiller said a sustained lift in values was unlikely without a clearer improvement in confidence and household finances.
“Affordability has improved, but housing is not suddenly cheap and buyers are still considering mortgage costs, job security and the economic outlook,” Tiller said.
“Those factors point to a gradual market rather than a rapid rebound. The risk of another major fall has reduced, but consistent price growth will probably require a stronger labour market and greater confidence.”
Burkett said the more measured environment rewarded buyers and sellers who were well prepared.
“This is a market where planning matters,” Burkett said.
“Buyers should be ready to act when the right home and value come together. Sellers should focus on the elements they can control: presentation, pricing, marketing and choosing an experienced local agent who understands how buyers are behaving.”
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