Property values have edged higher and listing activity has lifted, with February data suggesting the market may be finding firmer footing as we move further into 2026.
Fresh figures from Cotality’s Home Value Index (HVI) show national property values rose 0.2% in February, the strongest monthly increase since October last year and more than reversing January’s small decline.
At the same time, data from realestate.co.nz shows a significant lift in new listings and buyer engagement, pointing to improving confidence across the country.
National overview
Cotality’s latest data puts the national median property value at $806,697 in February. That remains 1.2% lower than a year ago and 17.3% below the market peak in early 2022, but the direction of travel has improved in recent months.
LJ Hooker Head of Research Mathew Tiller said the February result reflects a market that is gradually stabilising rather than accelerating.
“A 0.2% lift is modest, but it’s encouraging because it builds on improving sales volumes we’ve been seeing for some time. We’re not in a boom environment, but there are clearer signs that confidence is rebuilding.”
Tiller said lower mortgage rates, steady employment expectations and improved affordability compared to 2022 are supporting buyer decision-making.
“Values remain well below their peak, and that is keeping opportunities open for first home buyers and long-term investors. At the same time, vendors are adjusting expectations to meet today’s market realities.”
Listing activity and buyer engagement rising
According to realestate.co.nz, more than 12,200 new listings came to market in February, the highest number for the month since 2013. New listings were up 7.8% year-on-year, while total stock increased by a more modest 1.8%.
Importantly, stock is not rising at the same pace as new listings, suggesting properties are selling through rather than sitting on the market.
The platform also recorded its highest number of property seekers on site to date in February, further supporting the view that buyer activity is strengthening.
Tiller said this combination of higher listings and steady stock levels is a positive sign.
“When new listings increase but overall stock doesn’t balloon, it tells us transactions are happening. That’s a sign of a functioning market, buyers and sellers are engaging again.”
Nationally, the average asking price remained relatively steady, up 1.4% year-on-year to $861,180, reinforcing the theme of gradual, controlled movement rather than sharp price swings.
Main centres
Auckland
Values in Auckland lifted a modest 0.1% in February, with most sub-markets either flat or slightly higher. Papakura recorded a 0.2% monthly rise and is now slightly up over the past three months.
Tiller said Auckland’s improved affordability is likely to support activity over time.
“Auckland has seen a significant reset in values over the past two years. Combined with lower mortgage rates and income growth, affordability has improved materially. That creates a platform for gradual recovery, even if short-term movements remain subdued.”
Wellington
The wider Wellington region produced mixed results. Wellington City itself rose 0.8% in February, taking its quarterly change into positive territory, while Porirua, Kāpiti Coast and Upper Hutt recorded slight declines.
Wellington remains sensitive to economic and political sentiment, Tiller said.
“Wellington’s market often reflects public sector confidence and broader political conditions. With 2026 being an election year, some caution is understandable. However, improved affordability in parts of the region is beginning to draw buyers back.”
Regional highlights
Outside the main centres, several regions recorded stronger monthly gains. Invercargill rose 1.1%, Whanganui increased 1.2%, and Gisborne was up 0.9%.
Southland also recorded a new all-time average asking price high of $584,768, up 10.6% year-on-year, despite being the only region to record a double-digit annual decline in new listings.
Tiller said regional performance highlights the importance of local economic drivers.
“In parts of the country where the primary sector is performing well, we’re seeing more resilience in property values. It reinforces that property is fundamentally a local market, shaped by employment, industry strength and population flows.”
Meanwhile, Central Otago/Lakes District and Canterbury recorded February average asking price highs, even as stock levels tightened in some southern markets.
What to watch in 2026
While February’s data is constructive, the broader outlook remains measured.
Mortgage rates have eased from their peaks, and lending activity is improving, but debt-to-income restrictions and increased dwelling supply relative to population growth are likely to temper rapid price escalation.
Tiller said expectations should remain realistic.
“We’re seeing the early ingredients for a more active market: stronger sales volumes, stable pricing and improving confidence. But this is not a sharp rebound cycle. A balanced view is for modest value growth through 2026 rather than a rapid upswing.”
He added that external factors, including monetary policy decisions and the lead-up to the general election, will continue to shape sentiment in the months ahead.
“The key for buyers and sellers is to focus on their own circumstances and local market conditions. The market is moving, but it’s moving in a controlled and sustainable way.”
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