After five months of decline, property values across New Zealand lifted ever so slightly in September, with Cotality’s Home Value Index (HVI) recording a 0.1% rise. The national median value now sits at $810,141.
Realestate.co.nz data also shows a market that is holding steady but not yet building momentum. The national average asking price came in at $851,259, down 2.4% compared to the same time last year. At the same time, total housing stock reached 30,721 listings, a 2.3% increase year-on-year, providing plenty of choice for buyers.
LJ Hooker Head of Research Mathew Tiller said the small national rise in values needs to be seen in context.
“It’s encouraging to see values edge higher, and buyers showing more signs of interest, but this is not yet evidence of a sustained upswing. The market remains cautious, with sentiment subdued and economic conditions mixed.”
Buyers waiting on interest rates
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s next Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision is expected to be a major influence on the market in October. Speculation has mounted that a more significant cut could be on the way, following recent signs that inflation is moving back within the target band.
“We’ve already seen mortgage rates soften a little over the past few months, which has supported a slight increase in activity. If the OCR is cut further in October, and particularly if it’s a bigger move than expected, this could encourage more buyers back into the market,” Tiller said.
Realestate.co.nz notes that buyers are in “wait-and-see” mode, holding back to gauge whether rates will fall further. New listings rose by 7.1% compared to August, indicating vendors are becoming more active, but buyer demand, while improving, is yet to show the same enthusiasm.
Performance across the main centres
Across the country’s major urban markets, results remained mixed through September.
- Auckland: Values dipped -0.2%, dragged down by its largest sub-markets: Auckland City, Manukau and North Shore. Smaller areas such as Waitakere and Rodney managed modest growth. Compared to the previous peak, values remain down between -20% and -24%.
- Wellington: Property values fell -0.4% overall, with only Upper Hutt recording an increase (+0.5%). Declines ranged from -0.2% in Wellington City to -0.9% in Lower Hutt. Values are still sitting as much as 26% below peak levels in some sub-markets.
- Christchurch: Up 0.6% in September, continuing a run of steady growth.
- Dunedin: Rose 0.3%, a marginal but positive movement.
- Tauranga: Outperformed the main centres with a 1.3% rise.
Tiller said these variations highlight the differing levels of confidence across the main centres.
“Auckland and Wellington are still dealing with subdued sentiment and a cautious buyer pool, while cities like Tauranga and Christchurch are proving more resilient. Local factors are clearly playing a bigger role in performance right now.”
Regional markets show resilience
Outside of the big cities, a different story is starting to unfold. Several regional markets recorded stronger growth in September, with Gisborne leading the way at +2.5%. Invercargill (+0.8%) and New Plymouth (+0.7%) also rose, while Rotorua and Whangārei were the only major provincial centres to record small declines.
“The data shows a clear divergence between urban and regional markets,” Tiller said.
“Some provincial areas are benefitting from stronger local economic conditions, particularly where agriculture is performing well. While it’s too soon to say whether this will continue, it’s an important trend to watch.”
Realestate.co.nz also highlighted regional differences in asking prices. Taranaki (+5.6%) and Southland (+5.2%) were the only regions to record annual increases, pointing to stronger local demand. In contrast, Marlborough (-10.8%), Central North Island (-7.7%), and Northland (-7.3%) experienced the sharpest year-on-year declines.
Stock levels remain high, giving buyers choice
With total listings up 2.3% year-on-year and new listings lifting month-on-month, buyers are enjoying a high level of choice. This environment continues to keep power in the hands of purchasers, who are in no rush to transact.
“Buyers currently hold the advantage,” Tiller said.
“There is plenty of stock on the market, which means they can take time to do their research, negotiate and buy with confidence. For vendors, this makes realistic pricing essential. Properties that are priced in line with the market are the ones that are selling.”
First home buyers remain active
Despite the cautious backdrop, first home buyers continue to account for a significant portion of market activity, estimated at around 26% of purchases nationwide.
“First home buyers are the most active segment right now, and that’s a positive sign,” Tiller said.
“Stable prices and good stock levels create a window of opportunity, particularly if borrowing costs continue to ease. For those who are finance-ready, this is an attractive environment to secure a property.”
Market outlook
Looking ahead, Tiller expects the property market to remain finely balanced over the next few months.
“We’re starting to see some green shoots of recovery, but confidence is still fragile. Much will depend on how interest rates track and whether that encourages more buyers and investors to re-enter the market.”
Key factors to watch in the coming months include:
- OCR decisions and interest rate movements – the most immediate driver of sentiment.
- Regional divergences – with some provinces showing strength while main centres lag.
- Listing volumes – which will shape the balance of supply and demand through spring and summer.
“Overall, September gave us a small lift in values and some positive regional results, but the recovery remains tentative. The next few months will be crucial in determining whether this is the beginning of a more sustained upswing,” Tiller said.
Share
