Listings down, buyer demand rising: NZ property market poised for spring revival

Mathew Tiller Blog Spec

New Zealand’s property market is showing signs of a spring awakening, with fewer homes coming to market, stronger buyer demand, and sales activity gaining momentum.

According to the latest REINZ Residential Market Statistics, national sales volumes in June 2025 were up 20.3% compared to the same month last year. Seasonally adjusted, that’s a 14.8% increase — the third consecutive month of annual growth and the strongest run in years.

LJ Hooker Head of Research Mathew Tiller said the shift follows a prolonged period where the market was weighed down by high stock levels and hesitant buyers.

“For most of the past 18 months, listings were high and buyer confidence was patchy. That’s now starting to turn. We’re seeing fewer homes coming to market and more buyers competing for them. The change in market sentiment is becoming clear,” he said.

Figures from the July 2025 realestate.co.nz Property Report show listing volumes have dropped by around 2,000 homes each month since April. At the same time, search activity surged 25% between June and July, while buyer enquiries lifted 9.5% month-on-month.

Tiller said the combination of declining stock levels and stronger demand is reshaping the market in many parts of the country.

“The combination of declining stock levels and stronger demand is creating more competition for available properties, especially in the regions where affordability is often better and returns are stronger for investors,” he said.

That regional lift is reflected in REINZ data, with Gisborne sales volumes up 70% year-on-year, Southland 34.9%, Bay of Plenty 33.3%, Marlborough 32.7%, Canterbury 26.7%, Waikato 25.7%, and Auckland 17.8%. Even traditionally quieter markets such as the West Coast and Nelson posted double-digit growth.

Tiller said the turnaround is also being helped by the monetary policy outlook.

“While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the cash rate steady at 4.75% in July, its statement noted that inflation has continued to ease, the labour market is softening, and GDP growth remains modest.

“Mortgage rates have come down from their late-2023 peaks, particularly for shorter fixed terms. With borrowing costs stabilising and listings tightening, many buyers are choosing to act now rather than wait,” he said.

Affordability is another factor attracting buyers back into the market. According to realestate.co.nz, 60% of July listings were priced under $850,000.

“First-home buyers are taking advantage of softer prices, improved access to credit, and better affordability,” Tiller said.

“Investors are stepping back into regional markets where yields remain strong and vacancy rates are low. Many upgraders and movers, who paused during the downturn, are also re-entering the market as conditions stabilise.”

Looking ahead, Mr Tiller said the current momentum could build further in the coming months.

“If current trends continue, with tight listings, rising demand, and falling interest rates, we’re likely to see an active spring selling season and upward pressure on prices. The market doesn’t need a boom to bounce back. A steady shift in sentiment is all it takes, and right now, that shift is underway,” he said.

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