The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25%, and from a housing perspective that feels like the right outcome for the market right now. The property market is still relatively soft and activity remains below more normal levels, so we still need more buyers back in the market. Holding rates steady should help support confidence and avoid placing additional pressure on households at a time when buyers are already becoming more selective.
While the decision itself was widely expected, the bigger story now shifts to what comes next. Markets have largely moved on from asking whether rates have peaked and are increasingly focused on when the next move higher could arrive. That shift matters because the tailwind from falling rate expectations, which helped support confidence through parts of 2025, is beginning to fade.
The latest REINZ figures show a market that is still moving, although activity has eased into a lower gear. National sales totalled 6,262 in April, down 7.9% year on year, while seasonally adjusted sales softened 2.1% from March. REINZ noted that buyers remain active but measured, responding to cost of living pressures rather than stepping away from the market altogether.
Importantly though, the sales story is softer than the headline numbers suggest. REINZ also highlighted that sales activity remains close to the long term April average, which suggests the market is slowing rather than weakening sharply. To me, this feels like buyers are still there, they are simply taking more time and becoming more price conscious.
Price conditions are also painting a fairly balanced picture. The national median price eased just 0.6% over the year to $775,000, while prices outside Auckland were flat at $700,000. Median days to sell remains at 42 days nationally. Again, this feels more like a slower market than a stressed market.
Under the surface though, the market remains mixed. Auckland and Wellington continue to lag while parts of the South Island are holding up better. Southland remains the standout, with House Price Index growth of 8.0% and a new all time high, while Canterbury lifted 3.0%. It is another reminder that affordability, local economic conditions and supply continue to create very different outcomes depending on location.
Looking ahead, I think today’s decision helps keep the market on its current path. It supports stability and should help maintain confidence through winter. The key thing I will be watching is listings. If stock continues building faster than sales can absorb it, price growth is likely to remain subdued. If supply begins tightening and buyers become more active, some of the stronger regions could continue grinding higher.
Overall, the NZ housing market still feels a little uncertain. Activity has softened, buyers are taking their time and confidence remains cautious. The floor appears to be holding for now, but momentum still feels fragile and the market needs more buyers back before activity can meaningfully improve.
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